Yes I Am Already Thinking About 2024

Between COVID ravaging the world and the utter betrayal of America by the GOP, there aren't many silver linings out there right now.  But regarding Trump, it seems to me he's bound to do a lot more damage to his party -- literally his party -- than many people seem to think.

Who knows that sort of legal trouble he'll land in once he loses the shield of the presidency, but no doubt he is going to at least try and run in 2024, which means he'll begin campaigning in earnest in 2022 at the latest.

There are ton of young-ish GOP "moderates" (LOL) who really want to be president -- Rubio, Hawley, and Cotton just for starters.  And their (highly) relative difference from Trump's obvious derangement will be lapped up by the DC media -- "the serious, thoughtful Republican Party is back!"  (The only difference being that when it comes to fucking over poor and non-white folks Trump is willing to say what these other guys think out loud.)

The larger point is that, barring jail or death, the 2024 Republican primary will be an utter shit-show.  It could mean that Trump winds up running as a third-party candidate and actually out-performing the actual GOP candidate.  It could mean Trump, still bigly popular with his base, i.e., actual Republican voters, gets to play some sort of a power-broker role, where Rubio is forced to pick Ivanka or Don Jr. (the less dumb, more evil son) as his running mate.

Obvious death-of-American-Democracy implications aside, it could be fucking hilarious above all else.

I mean, nobody knows.  Biden's health is going to be an issue as well, but I have a lot of faith in Kamala Harris.  At the very least, she doesn't take shit from anybody, and that terrifies many Republicans.

All of this is to say, your Rubio-Hawley-Cottons of the world are obviously much smarter and more polished than Cheeto Hitler.  (Yes, I am damning with faint praise.)  And that could be their downfall, because while any one of them will make David Brooks' heart flutter, they lack the sheer animal cunning and cruelty of Trump.  They lack the ability to channel the vicious, hateful spirit that a solid one-third of Americans, white Americans, harbor for the rest of their country.

Remember that in the last Republican primary, Trump didn't just win, he annihilated his opponents ("little Marco," Ted Cruz's ugly wife, etc.)

No amount of polish will give a pretender that unique Trumpian showman's ability to bring out the hateful id of American white nationalism, and to harness its dark energies into electoral success.

So this isn't a prediction as much as a reminder that Trump will never go quietly into that good night.  No small number of his former "friends" are going to die in jail because of him.

Who's to say the Republican Party can survive him either?

How You Feeling, Teacher James?

I'm very confident that Biden is going to win the U.S. popular vote in record-breaking numbers -- both his overall tally and in seeing the largest voter turnout (Democratic and Republican) ever.  The early voting alone shows that people on both sides are motivated, and in particular younger folks who will guarantee a Biden popular victory.

But of course, it's 2020.  2000 (Gore vs. Bush) and 2016 demonstrated that Electoral College shit-sandwiches are only for Democrats, and never Republicans.  The Supreme Court is now packed with folks who literally worked for Bush in 2000 so he could rat-fuck his way to a contested election.  The same goes for the state-level.

So once again, for the fourth time (!) since I moved to Korea, I'm waiting until tomorrow morning my time to find out what happens.  If all goes well, we should know by nine or ten p.m. U.S. time, which will put me in my office at 11 a.m. or noon Wednesday.  (I'll be teaching an adult conversation course, actually).

I really doubt I'll get any decent sleep tonight.  (Not like I've been getting more than three or fours at best lately.)  My adult students continue to be flummoxed at how such a strong and rich nation like America can have such an unnecessarily complicated (and racist!) system like the Electoral College.

That said, as with early voting mentioned above, there are some real Biden advantages baked in already.  I think the number of Trump 2016 voters who either sit this one out or actually pull the lever for Biden will not be insignificant.

So there's my optimism.

Here's my pessimism -- a defeated Trump will still Tweet at us.  A solid 30-35% of America will remain deplorable at best, and violent at worst.  The Republican Party has abdicated any pretense about maintaining a functioning democracy.  Indeed, the sooner we collapse into a Putin-style kleptocracy, all the better for them.

Oh, and the economy is fucked due to COVID, which is only going to get worse.  There's no guarantee it won't last until 2022 or worse.

From day one Biden needs to think and act big.  I'm not sure he's up to it.  Obviously better than the fascist alternative, but still -- does even a big win tomorrow just delay the inevitable Tom Cotton "Use Tanks Against Peaceful Protesters" 2024 campaign?

Well, That Happened

Biden did fine.

Could you stand for 90 minutes feet away from Cheeto Hitler without literally smacking him across his fake-tanned face?

Also, Kamala will destroy Pence.

— Antifa #BLM James (@wetcasements) September 30, 2020

American Exceptionalism Part 2,836

White people literally drowning to death in their expensive boats to support Trump is peak 2020.

Peak white people, really.

— Antifa #BLM James (@wetcasements) September 7, 2020